Five Leaders Who Can Become the Next Gorbachev

Starting with perestroika in 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev changed the world. He halted the Soviet nuclear arms race, allowed democratization of Eastern Europe and of his own country, and ended the Cold War. And while Ronald Reagan had merely taunted the Soviet leadership, Mr. Gorbachev did indeed tear down that Wall. Gorbachev is not just a leader, he’s a Statesman – in the same league as Mahatma Gandhi. As the man celebrates his 80th birthday, here is a look at 5 leaders who could follow his footsteps and become the next Gorby, the Great.

5. Kim Jong Il – The most natural successor to Gorbachev’s legacy is the Stalinist North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Il. Even if he continues to stay in power and groom his son for succession, he can make significant differences by abandoning (or at least scaling back) North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, diverting the disproportional military budget to agricultural modernization to save his starving population, and freeing the estimated 200,000 captives from Korean labor camps. Any economic activity, without the help of post-sanctions foreign aid that Kim has gotten addicted to, would be a small step for “dear leader” but a giant leap for North Korea.

4. Hugo Chavez – Hugo Chavez does things differently. He openly flaunts the firing of talented personnel from oil companies to increase state control, waves meat in front of hunger strikers and the Venezuelan bad boy has even opened a 5-star resort for fleeing dictators like Mubarak. The question is – can Chavez do things differently still? Can his concept of 21st century communism finally become the “communism with a human face” that Gorbachev strived for? Can he build a social democracy and stop wasting his country’s reserves – already eroded by 1.4% negative growth and 30% inflation – on preliminary nuclear testing? His affection towards Gaddafi may prompt the Venezuelans to do what the Libyans have done. If Chavez does not introduce some reform soon, his people may not wait till the 2012 elections to hand down their verdict.
3. Robert Mugabe – Robert Mugabe, the world’s second worst dictator1 presiding over the 4th worst failed state2 did display some signs of Gorbachevian goodness when back in 2009, he took his most vocal opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai – who, incidentally, got more votes than Mugabe in the 2008 presidential elections - into the administration as his prime minister. But with well over a quarter century in power, the 87 year old Zimbabwean dictator can choose to go down history as a freedom-fighter turned despot or as the architect of Zimbabwean democracy.
2. Barack Obama – The US president already has one thing in common with Gorbachev – the Nobel Peace Prize. But there’s one big difference – Barack Obama is yet to deserve his. After almost ten years of war in Afghanistan, and eight in Iraq, the US is keen to pull out but Obama must ensure that even as US troops leave the two countries, the US does not. Non-military aid and involvement to get the countries back on track with stable, commanding (and not necessarily pro-American) governments must remain his priorities. A hasty, unthoughtful American withdrawal could lead to ethnic wars, a Yugoslavia style break-up of Iraq, and open new channels for the Taliban and Al-Qaeda to infiltrate the wider region.

1. Hu Jintao – If anyone today can become even bigger than Gorbachev, it’s the Chinese Head of State Hu Jintao. While Gorbachev was struggling with a failing economy and thought it wiser to focus on domestic issues than the arms race, Jintao is in a position where he doesn’t need to and won’t be asked to make changes. Chinese credit and cheap goods have the world in their grip and few dare to challenge China’s domestic policies – therefore, Jintao’s opportunity is even bigger. Can he loosen his hold on Tibet’s jugular even though he blocks the news of Egyptian protests on Chinese internet? A Chinese perestroika will not result in the break-up of the country because unlike the USSR, China does not have an imperial history of unwilling subjects. If Jintao did indeed ‘let go’, it will only create a better informed Chinese work-force that will unlikely question the Communist Party so long as China’s wealth and growth are distributed.

To become Gorbachev, these leaders will not only have to go against the advice of their inner circles, but also against their own instincts. Four of them will need tremendous courage to open-up the media that will eventually bite and free opposition leaders who will almost instantly enjoy greater popular support. It will feel like a political suicide and in some cases, it will be exactly that. But then again, no one ever said that becoming the next Gorbachev was easy!

Notes:
1. Foreign Policy’s The 23 Worst Dictators
2. Foreign Policy’s The Failed Sates Index, 2010